FireSTARR
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Probability of fire survival

Fire survival is determined for each point at each time step. Survival is dependent on FFMC, DMC, and fuel in the cell. If the fire is determined to have not survived in both the FFMC and DMC fuels then it is considered extinguished and all points in that cell are removed from the simulation. Since the cell is already marked as burned at this point, it will not burn again.

Probability of survival is determined as per the papers referenced, with the FBP fuel types having been assigned an FFMC duff type and a DMC duff type, and the moisture for each type being calculated based off the current indices.

References

Lawson, B.D.; Frandsen, W.H.; Hawkes, B.C.; Dalrymple, G.N. 1997. Probability of sustained smoldering ignitions for some boreal forest duff types. https://cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/pubwarehouse/pdfs/11900.pdf

Frandsen, W.H. 1997. Ignition probability of organic soils. https://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/pdf/10.1139/x97-106

Anderson, Kerry 2002. A model to predict lightning-caused fire occurrences. International Journal of Wildland Fire 11, 163-172. https://doi.org/10.1071/WF02001